Breaking Ground: 5 Key Shifts for a New Economy from the 15th Annual NOMAR Forecast

The 15th Annual New Orleans Real Estate and Economic Forecast, presented by Gulf Coast Bank & Trust and hosted by the New Orleans Metropolitan Association of REALTORS® (NOMAR), revealed a clear truth: our market is at a pivotal crossroads. We face a national affordability challenge, but the solutions lie in leveraging an unprecedented convergence of capital, technology, and political alignment.

1. The National Housing Affordability Crisis & Local Leverage

The core challenge remains the national housing crunch: the income required to afford a home has more than tripled in the last 12 years.

Local Reality Check (Dr. Gary Wagner - University of Louisiana at Lafayette): The NOMAR region is experiencing a slow sales pace and elevated inventory, especially at higher price points. The only parishes seeing sales volume above historical norms are Plaquemines and Washington, reflecting industrial job growth and the search for greater affordability. The good news: this inventory gives qualified buyers increased leverage right now.

2. "Power is the New Labor": The Industrial Boom’s Constraint

The focus for large-scale development has shifted from workforce availability to fundamental infrastructure. National Peak Energy Demand is forecasted to grow 5X faster than previously expected, leading to the powerful assertion: "Power is the new labor."

The Opportunity: This scarcity creates an "historically unprecedented opportunity" for those investing in energy infrastructure, logistics, and data center solutions.

The Local Response: The state’s $150 Million LED FastSites Program is the direct tool designed to bridge this gap, preparing sites to attract major industrial projects, break ground and strengthen our position as a logistics hub.

3. Multifamily, Office & Industrial Demand Quality—Lenders Demand Liquidity

All commercial sectors are defined by a "flight to quality," while lenders demand extreme caution from borrowers.

Lender Guidance (Thomas Ogg of Gulf Coast Bank & Trust): Borrowers must "Think Like a Bank." This means showing 6-12 months of debt service coverage in cash reserves**, preparing detailed sensitivity analysis (showing you can survive a 10% rent drop), and ensuring all financials are immaculate.

The Industrial Constraint (Bryce French of CBRE): The focus for Industrial is no longer labor, but utility. The market desperately needs local developers to advance Class A projects that can meet the massive energy demands of modern industrial tenants. This sector is directly constrained by the power deficit—a key bottleneck for future growth.

The Quality Premium: Despite overall high vacancy, new construction is commanding premium rents. Office stabilization is projected as over 750,000 SF of CBD space is being converted to residential.

4. Retail Resilience: The Rise of Essential & Experiential

The retail market is stable, but highly selective per Kirsten Early of SSRA:

Winners: The trend is towards Essential and Affordable Services: Discount/Value stores, Fitness, QSRs, and Groceries.

Losers: Mall vacancy (with the exception of stars like Lakeside Shopping Center) is significantly higher (16.9%).

Strategy: Successful projects (like Clearview City Center) are blending these winning tenants with experiential concepts and AI for personalized shopping.

5. The Mandate for Transformational Action & Smarter Policy

The forecast concluded with a unified call for action, emphasizing that the economic trajectory now rests on political will and execution:

The Political Pivot: Leaders called the current political alignment an "awesome combination," stating that capital is ready to flow if the new administration delivers predictability and speed in permitting.

The Policy Ask (Mike Sherman of Sherman Strategies & Michael Meredith of Verius Property Group): Developers urged the new administration to support adaptive reuse and implement policies that better connect regulatory requirements with affordable housing funding. They noted that predictable success will lead to a snowball effect of capital deployment.

The Final Word - Breaking Ground: the Emergence of a New Economy:

Keynotes reinforced this civic duty. Newell Normand of the Newell Normand Show delivered the mandate: "Compel political leadership to act! Be the advocate in your neighborhood." And Guy Williams of Gulf Coast Bank & Trust urged us to use AI and innovation to "bridge the gap between skills, ability and knowledge."

The message is clear: The opportunity for transformation is here. It’s time for every professional to be an active advocate for the change they wish to see.

Newell Normand gave us a mandate: Advocate for change. What is the single most urgent structural issue (Permitting, Insurance, Public Safety, etc.) that the new mayoral administration must tackle in the first 100 days to earn investor confidence?